Final bulletin, election day

Summary:

It is literally illegal to try to influence voters on election day.  There’s nothing to say, except that I urge you to exercise your privilege of living in a democratic society and go vote.

The Echo Chamber Project for the New Zealand 2017 election is complete.  The politics never end, of course – there’s still the voting, the counting, and the coalition negotiations.  A final debriefing of this project will come after the dust settles.

 

Echo Chamber National:

Election day:

 

Echo Chamber Labour:

Election day:

 

Echo Chamber Green:

Election day:

 

Echo Chamber New Zealand First:

Nothing.

 

Echo Chamber Maori Party:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber ACT:

ACT’s Twitter accounts disappeared from the internet.  Weird.

 

Echo Chamber United Future:

Final thoughts:

Election day:

 

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Bulletin 22/9/2017

Summary:

Last day before the election.  The parties are mostly just getting people to the voting booths.  No time left for new policies or changing the narrative.

 

Echo Chamber National:

Raise taxes, run zero budgets, and neglect critical expenditure are exactly some of the things Bill English and National has done over the past 9 years.  “Not credible”, he says:

 

Whereas the news is reporting things like, “Economists were unimpressed by news that the economy grew in the second quarter, warning much of the growth was due to one-offs and won’t spur the central bank to lift interest rates any time soon”:

 

Echo Chamber Labour:

Propaganda:

 

On housing:

 

Echo Chamber Green:

On planning:

 

Echo Chamber New Zealand First:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber Maori Party:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber ACT:

Propaganda:

 

Echo Chamber United Future:

Policies:

 

Bulletin 21/9/2017

Summary:

The final leader’s debate, but the rehashing of policies and talking points is less interesting than the increasing trend of people outright calling National liars.  It’s taken a while, but as we reach the final days before the election, National’s credibility is tanking right before our eyes.  National has poisoned their own well.  By rights, they should lose the election for trying to deceive their way into power.  But what if they get back in government?  Their supporters are increasingly detached from facts.  Their detractors will reject what they say out of hand, even if they start telling the truth again – trust, once broken, is difficult to mend.

Winston Peters is talking about the Port of Auckland.  I think his strategy this election was a mistake.  He tried to set his own agenda by not engaging the other parties, but he’s ended up making himself isolated and irrelevant instead.

 

Echo Chamber National:

Darkness falls over Bill English.  Seriously, who thinks this is a good promotional photo?:

 

(!) We’ve addressed these already.  National repeating false and misleading statements:

 

Platitudes:

 

(!) Retweeted by Paula Bennett.  Factually untrue, the Memorandum of Understanding never bound the Labour and Greens into a coalition government.  The MoU expires on election night:

 

(!) There are far more than 115 businesses in New Zealand.  The Mood of the Boardroom is qualitative data from a few selected big corporations, is not a representative sample:

 

(!) I don’t know where these numbers are coming from, but it’s not Labour’s fiscal plan or the PREFU 2017.  Page 16 of Labour’s fiscal plan does not have a $23.5bn figure, nor a “new additional line item spending” category, nor a $7.5bn, nor an “unannounced policies” category.  The operating balance in the PREFU 2017 for the 2018-2021 period totals $31.5bn, not $19.3bn.  The $9.7bn figure for increased revenue includes 2017, not only 2018-2022.  The “wages and cost inflation” criticism is directed at the PREFU and Treasury forecasts, saying that the government have underestimated inflation – that’s not Labour’s fault, nor is it necessarily true, just a different set of assumptions used for different forecasts:

 

Echo Chamber Labour:

On poverty and health:

 

On National’s lies:

 

Debating:

 

On the economy:

 

Echo Chamber Green:

On poverty and health:

 

Not debating, but opinionated:

 

On benefits:

 

Echo Chamber New Zealand First:

On the Port of Auckland:

 

On immigrants:

 

Echo Chamber Maori Party:

On LGBQTI:

 

Echo Chamber ACT:

Debate opinions:

 

(!) Factually untrue, Labour has plenty of housing policy:

 

(!) Factually untrue, treaties can be modified if the parties agree:

 

On housing:

 

Echo Chamber United Future:

Nothing significant.

 

Bulletin 20/9/2017

Summary:

National keeps fudging numbers and making vague promises that aren’t within their power to keep.  Ardern continues to draw big crowds, and Labour announces they will rein in predatory lenders.  The Greens talk about climate change and public transport.  New Zealand First has an ad.

 

Echo Chamber National:

Kaye’s personal campaign:

 

We don’t differentiate between those who have and those who have not:

 

(!) Talking about averages conveniently ignores all considerations of inequity, of course.  Keep in mind that the wealthy and privileged benefit from ignoring inequality, while the poor and disadvantaged are harmed by ignoring inequality:

 

(!) The claims are not backed by evidence:

 

Promises you can’t keep:

 

(!) What does it actually mean when more students pass examinations over time?  IQs increasing dramatically from one year to the next?  No.  Teachers becoming dramatically more effective from one year to the next?  Highly unlikely.  Teachers and students figuring out how the examinations work, and optimising their work to pass the exams?  Likely.  The exams becoming easier to pass over time?  Possible.  The thing to keep in mind is that everyone wants more kids to pass – the students want to pass, the teachers want them to pass, the government wants their statistics to look good.  The whole system is designed so that more students pass the examinations:

 

Echo Chamber Labour:

Campaigning:

 

On National’s lies:

 

On health:

 

On loan sharks:

 

Echo Chamber Green:

Debating:

 

On transport:

 

Echo Chamber New Zealand First:

Propaganda:

 

Echo Chamber Maori Party:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber ACT:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber United Future:

On climate change:

 

Bulletin 19/9/2017

Summary:

Some farmers are protesting against Labour, and the photos aren’t pretty.  The Greens release their fiscal plan, in which their policies are costed and their impact on government finances outlined.  National is trying real hard to talk up their accomplishments, but it also sounds increasingly detached from reality.  They also need to stop retweeting the crap from the Kiwiblog fake news factory.  Labour seems to be turning towards attacking National – perhaps they figure it’s enough to be less negative than National, and National has been very negative recently.

 

Echo Chamber National:

(!) “Here’s my ballpark estimates”.  He’s pulling numbers out of his ass and inventing things that aren’t Labour policy:

 

(!) Retweeted by Maggie Barry.  Literally making stuff up.  Read the actual policy at http://www.labour.org.nz/workplace_relations_policy.  I’m not going to bother to refute every single point, but doing a few starting from the top.  Kiwiblog lie: “The industry will have no ability to say no to it”.  Actual policy: “In conjunction with all relevant stakeholders”.  Kiwiblog lie: “A small employer in Invercargill will be forced to pay the same wages and conditions as a large multinational employer based in Auckland.”  Actual policy: “Agreements that set minimum conditions”, does not preclude conditions above the minimum.  You get the picture:

 

Propaganda:

 

On trade deals.  Do you think we’ll make more money selling our goods to Latin America, or Latin America will make more money from us with greater access to our markets?:

 

Fear taxes and fear the unknown:

 

Borderline gaslighting:

 

Echo Chamber Labour:

On National:

 

On healthcare:

 

Echo Chamber Green:

On water royalties:

 

On aircraft fuel:

 

On Green economics:

 

On poverty:

 

Echo Chamber New Zealand First:

Protesting:

 

On aircraft fuel:

 

Echo Chamber Maori Party:

Debating:

 

Echo Chamber ACT:

On protests:

 

Crack down on kids more:

 

On aircraft fuel:

 

(!) The ravings of a madman.  Do I really have to explain that no one is actually enslaved, or that those taxes are to pay for the things that those people need?:

 

Echo Chamber United Future:

On income taxes:

 

Bulletin 18/9/2017

Summary:

There’s unlikely to be any more policy announcements in the few days before the election.  Candidates are out campaigning and rehashing what they’ve already said.  A ruptured fuel pipeline gives Labour and New Zealand First something to criticise the government about.

 

Echo Chamber National:

Oil pipeline leaks, government offers support to the oil companies, no mention of environment:

 

Campaigning on the status quo:

 

Echo Chamber Labour:

On education:

 

On Bill English lying:

 

On aircraft fuel:

 

Echo Chamber Green:

Campaigning:

 

On property rental laws:

 

Echo Chamber New Zealand First:

On aircraft fuel:

 

Echo Chamber Maori Party:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber ACT:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber United Future:

On synthetic cannabis:

 

Bulletin 17/9/2017

Summary:

The parties are rehashing their policies in the final days before the election.  National, for whatever reason, puts a “just announced” label on the same policies that they’ve been talking about the whole campaign (is this what they call “lipstick on a pig?).  Labour ops for rallies with the ever-photogenic Jacinda Ardern.  The Greens rally against poverty, and announce house rental laws reform.

 

Echo Chamber National:

Campaigning:

 

(!) It’s actually not bizarre at all.  Consider that 1) the government pays for your healthcare and 2) the costs of treatment are lower if illnesses are discovered and addressed early, it means that regular check-ups and preventative care will save the taxpayer money, so it makes economic sense to incentivise regular check-ups to reduce overall healthcare costs.  But go ahead, Maggie Barry, keep retweeting this ignoramus:

 

(!) I don’t understand why they feel the need to tell these lies.  This is not “just announced”, it’s the same policies they’ve been running the whole election campaign.  Do they think the policies themselves aren’t good enough, that they need to spice it up with “just announced” to make people notice?  Again, they’re talking about “on average”, although they do helpfully provide the fact that the average annual wage is $59,000, so you can figure out whether you’re getting more or less than what they advertise (hint: over 2/3rd of New Zealanders will get less):

 

I’m pretty sure the people who are scared of taxes are already voting National, and those who are voting for the Greens rather like the idea of capital gains and carbon taxes.  But go ahead, Steven, keep barking up that tree if you enjoy it:

 

Echo Chamber Labour:

Campaigning:

 

On tax cuts and benefits:

 

Echo Chamber Green:

Rally against poverty:

 

On climate change:

 

On taxes:

 

On rental law reform:

 

Echo Chamber New Zealand First:

On taxes:

 

Echo Chamber Maori Party:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber ACT:

Nothing significant.

 

Echo Chamber United Future:

On climate change: